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Home > Research > Attacking Serious and Organised Crime Research Program > Risky People
Risky People
In recent years an increasing literature has shown that a minority of offenders are responsible for the majority of serious crime, including violent extremism and sex offences. As a consequence, the focus of this project is to identify ways of targeting people at high risk of engaging in offending such as violent extremism or sex offences and how people perceive that risk. Risk assessment tools for forensic populations have included both static factors such as age and previous convictions, with dynamic factors such as whether the individual is drinking heavily or depressed, to create a combined risk assessment tool (e.g. Kropp & Hart, 2000). Potentially, this could also be applied to risk assessment for extremism and sex offending where individual factors may indicate that a person is increasing in risk. The implication is that it may be possible to identify a number of factors that are associated with increased risk of engaging in violent extremism or sex offending and to respond accordingly. Thus, risk assessment tools in this context may help identify information that needs to be collected, which in turn may provide a better indication of risk. Some important advantages of this approach are that it provides an evidence base and audit trail for the decision-making process; it can be designed to ensure consistency of judgments, and therefore; is fair, thus reassuring communities and complying with Human Rights legislation. Importantly, by guiding the collection and assessment of relevant information, these techniques typically outperform unstructured judgments.
As a starting point we have reviewed the open source material available on all 21 individuals convicted under Australian anti-terrorism laws. From this, and the existing literature, we developed a risk assessment model concerning what information might be useful to collect for counter-terrorism intelligence gathering. Risk assessment “models” for identifying risk in general offenders were also applied to violent extremism. There is not sufficient evidence to create a risk assessment model to predict who is intending to commit violent extremism and distinguish them from those who are not. However, from a review of the available literature, a number of factors, mainly attitudinal, appear to be associated with increased risk of violent extremism including beliefs by violent extremists that they are retaliating, that potential victims are less than human, and that their actions are religiously justified. In addition, violent extremists isolate themselves from positive influences, have a capability for violence, and typically access violent materials. Factors were considered in light of how this information might be usefully applied within an intelligence-led counter-terrorism context and evaluated with a simulated counter-terrorism exercise. Importantly, protective factors are considered which are unexplored largely in the literature. These include factors such as family relationships, employment and religious interpretations that reduce the likelihood of involvement in violent extremism. With regards to sex offending, in conjunction with colleagues at Queensland Police Service and Monash University, we are developing a risk assessment tool to prioritize potential offenders on the Australian National Child Offender Register.
Selected publications in 2010 and in press include:
Vogel, L. & Kebbell, M.R., (in press). Judgement and decision-making in the controversial Dr. Haneef counter-terrorism operation: A simulation approach. Psychiatry, Psychology, and Law.
Porter, L.E. & Kebbell, M.R. (2010) Radicalization in Australia: Examining Australia’s convicted terrorists. Psychiatry, Psychology and Law, first published on 11 June 2010 (iFirst).
Associate Professor Mark Kebbell (Chief Investigator)
Dr Louise Porter (Research Fellow)
Nina Westera (PhD Student)
Kristy Meszaros (PhD Student)
Lauren Vogel (PhD Student)
