Intelligence Methods

Project aims and objectives:

The Intelligence Methods Project covers all law enforcement and security work relating to crime or intelligence collection, collation, analysis and dissemination. The project is deliberately articulated in broad terms as intelligence is a developing and innovative discipline and to allow for a strategic view of intelligence problems and, importantly, an opportunity for the research community to positively contribute towards resolving challenges experienced by our policing and security Industry Partners. To date, little research has been focused on how information is interpreted to create intelligence products. Therefore, we are investigating what makes an analyst most effective, and in particular the skills and abilities that characterise the effective analysis of information.

2011 Project activities and outcomes:

To date we have conducted the following studies:

1. The effective analyst. This study concerns the collation of a representative range of views from crime and intelligence personnel concerning the attributes of an effective analyst. This has been published in Policing and Society.
2. Simulation studies. These studies concern a number of simulation exercises that will be conducted in order to shed light on how analysts make decisions and to provide training opportunities. One study has been completed that indicated visual presentation significantly enhances perception of risk and that intelligence analysts are reluctant to reduce levels of risk in potential targets. A study is currently being undertaken to determine the effectiveness of structured decision-making (a Sleipner style approach) to assessing risk in organised crime gangs.
3. Mapping analytical decision-making. Analytical decision-making has been mapped with regards to the most important critical decision points indicating factors that encourage analytical or intuitive decision-making. In addition, intelligence analysts’ decision styles have been documented.
4. Managers’ perceptions. Intelligence managers’ perceptions of current and future directions in intelligence have been solicited and documented and will be disseminated in the near future.
5. Red-Teaming exercises. A “red-team” exercise has been successfully completed to look at the use of this technique for terrorism scenario planning. The different members of the redteam were remarkably consistent in their planning.

With a greater understanding of the roles of intelligence analysts, the research team will further develop the research by looking at forensic science. After a short hiatus, the forensic intelligence project has been reconfigured to align with the needs of its sector partners. Tim Legrand and Lauren Vogel have undertaken a survey consultation with partners to establish the prospects for the implementation of forensic intelligence as a strategic policy and practice instrument in state/federal policing. The output of this consultation is a CEPS industry briefing and a workshop in Canberra in October 2011 to expand the research themes.

Plans for 2012:

In 2012, pathfinder feasibility projects will be implemented to test the utility of the forensic intelligence concepts in the policing milieu. Finally, a long-standing interest in measuring success in intelligence will also be further developed.