Dealing with the unknown is just as important as making maximum use of available knowledge. Developing more sophisticated concepts and methods to effectively understand and manage ignorance and uncertainty is one of the three domains of the new cross-cutting discipline of Integration and Implementation Sciences (I2S; see Knowledge Integration project). Different disciplines and areas of practice focus on different aspects of ignorance and uncertainty. To date there has been relatively little attention to trading ideas or synthesis of approaches across different disciplines and practice areas to strengthen the ability to manage the unknown, especially in relation to major societal issues like policing and security.

This project builds on two seminal works: Michael Smithson’s 1989 book Ignorance and Uncertainty: Emerging Paradigms (Springer, NY) and Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson’s 2008 edited book Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives (Earthscan, London).

These works demonstrate that unknowns cannot be eliminated; that there are different kinds of unknowns which can be arranged into typologies allowing us to distinguish between distortion and incompleteness, for example; and that there are at least six major management strategies for unknowns – reduction, denial, banishment, acceptance, exploitation and surrender.

The aim of this project is undertake sub-projects, where possible in collaboration with a range of CEPS and other policing and security researchers and practitioners, to:

• Enhance the ability of those researchers and practitioners to better understand, manage and communicate about ignorance and uncertainty;
• Provide new insights into various aspects of policing and security through a more sophisticated approach to ignorance and uncertainty;
• Elaborate conceptual frameworks about ignorance and uncertainty by integrating diverse discipline and practice perspectives relevant to various policing and security topics; and
• Strengthen methods for managing ignorance and uncertainty in various aspects of policing and security.

Modules to enhance understanding and management of ignorance and uncertainty will be developed for the graduate and professional development courses described in Knowledge Integration project.